Arctic Development Futures: Perspectives on Arctic Marine Development in the Canadian Arctic

Abstract

The Canadian Arctic is warming at a rate that could soon attract increased traffic within and the region from Canadian and foreign vessels. Any sharp increase in traffic could pose a threat to Arctic peoples, the environment, and Canada’s regime and sovereignty in the North. Canada currently leads the world in Polar Code compliance and regulation. Additionally, it was the first state to publish legislation discriminating the Arctic from other maritime legal regimes, directly leading to Article 234 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. As the Arctic warms and ice patterns change, Canada could have to again take up the mantle of leadership in Arctic waters. Canada’s Arctic is already seeing an uptake in transit passages through the Northwest Passage, and it has so far adhered to Canada’s regulatory practice. However, even at a low volume, groundings and regulatory breaches occur; without the proper institutional development, incidents could arise with greater frequency and lead to large consequences. This study used industry and policy worker interviews to generate development scenarios for the Canadian Arctic from their perspectives. The goal is to understand policy scenarios and potential development in Canada’s Arctic marine industries and government sectors. Two scenarios were developed using the Oxford Scenario Planning Approach and enabled the author to create policy recommendations to identify and address deficiencies in Canada’s Arctic regime. A divergence was noted surrounding the strength of Canada’s existing Arctic regime, but all data pointed to the requirements of an increase in proactive investment in the region. A briefing note is attached with the report summarizing policy recommendations.