ASSESSING THE COMPLETION TIME OF ON-SCENE RESCUE MISSIONS IN THE MARITIME AREAS OF THE CANADIAN ARCTIC USING MARINE OR AIR

Abstract

Increasing shipping in the Canadian Arctic enabled by climate change and economic growth heighten the need for efficient search and rescue (SAR) operations. Understanding rescue response times, including the maximum expected time of rescue (METR), is crucial. Current research lacks detailed metrics on rescue duration, which this study aims to address by modeling on-scene rescue mission durations based on various influencing factors. The research employs discrete event simulation (DES) and a Monte Carlo (MC) approach to estimate the duration of maritime rescue missions in the Canadian Arctic. It combines expert models to evaluate the weather factors and parameter uncertainties, using scenarios based on expert insights and literature. The DES model is tested across different Canadian Arctic locations. The research indicates that on-scene rescue missions in the Canadian Arctic are notably prolonged during winter compared to summer, with additional time required if icebreaking is needed in the vicinity of the incident. Key factors influencing rescue duration include wave conditions, visibility, air temperature, and wind speed. Adverse sea conditions and darkness extend on-scene rescue times. The study primarily considers rescues from lifeboats or life rafts and suggests future research should explore a broader range of rescue scenarios and vessel types.