ESTIMATING MAXIMUM EXPECTED TIME OF RESCUE: FOCUSING ON HELICOPTER RESCUE TO MARINE INCIDENTS IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC

Abstract

This research explores the impact of various factors on helicopter operability and response times during Search and Rescue (SAR) operations in the Canadian Arctic marine environment. Using the Helicopter SAR Operations Model (HESARO) to simulate scenarios—such as the number of people in distress, incident locations, and seasonal variations—and the Royal Canadian Armed Forces Helicopter Environmental Operability Model (RHEO) to assess challenges faced by Cormorant helicopters in adverse weather, the study evaluates the Maximum Expected Time of Rescue for Helicopter Operations (METR-HT). The HESARO model, built as a Discrete Event Simulation (DES), realistically simulates the sequence of SAR events (e.g., helicopter takeoff, refueling, search, and rescue) at specific time intervals. This event-based approach enables the assessment of SAR operations under predefined conditions. To account for variability and uncertainty, the model integrates Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), introducing randomness into key factors such as weather, takeoff preparation, and hoist time for Persons in Distress (PID). Through multiple simulation runs, the model captures a broad range of possible SAR outcomes, enhancing its ability to reflect the unpredictability of real-world operations. The results highlight significant spatial and temporal variations in response times, with northern zones showing extended durations, particularly during winter months when METR-HT exceeds 26 hours. In contrast, southern Arctic zones demonstrate faster response times, with durations falling below 15 hours in summer. These findings emphasize the need for seasonal preparedness in Arctic SAR operations. The insights derived from this study have implications for improving the IMO Polar Code, advising ship operators on safety protocols, and supporting strategic planning by the Canadian Coast Guard and Armed Forces as maritime traffic and incident risks continue to rise in the Arctic.