dc.contributor.author | Corkett, Christopher J. | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2010-01-21T20:56:05Z | |
dc.date.available | 2010-01-21T20:56:05Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2008-09-22 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10222/12426 | |
dc.description.abstract | Here I compare the valid parameterization of fisheries economics with the data-fitted parameters of a stock
assessment’s modeling, invalid models whose predictions cannot be falsified (which is another way of saying the
models are not universal). The distinction between (a) a model’s valid universal prediction and (b) a model’s invalid
prediction that cannot be falsified can be summarized in terms of a model’s parameterization, as:
high falsifiability = paucity of parameters = simplicity
Models of stock assessment; invalid models whose predictions
cannot be falsified
I used Ricker’s version of a Gordon Schaefer model (Corkett, 2002, my Fig. (c)) to illustrate a non falsifiable MSY
prediction of stock assessment, a prediction that, like that in Fig. 1B, takes the logical form of a ‘there-is’
proposition (Popper, 1959, p. 68), as:
The universal laws of physics, for example, are simple: they have few parameters and a high degree of falsifiability. It
is this high degree of falsifiability or negation that guides all engineers by showing them what cannot be achieved and
should not therefore be tried as part of ‘trial and error’ engineering. By contrast, the models of fish stock assessment
are not simple: their data-based parameters change with the changing data. These models are not universal; they
apply only to a particular fishery situation and are incapable of guiding all fishery managers (all social engineers) by
indicating what cannot be achieved in a social engineering. Under Karl Popper’s limited (and formal) definition of
empirical science data-fitted models proffer policy advice to fisheries management that is formally invalid. | en_US |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | Poster presented to the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES). Annual Science Conference, 22-26 September, 2008. Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada.; | |
dc.subject | Parameterization | |
dc.subject | Validation | |
dc.subject | Universal laws | |
dc.subject | Economics | |
dc.title | Scientific parameterization and its validation: comparing the universal models of fisheries economics with the invalid modeling of stock assessment | en_US |
dc.title.alternative | Poster presented to the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES), 2008, Halifax, N.S | en_US |
dc.type | Article | en_US |