Estimating Maximum Expected Time of Rescue: Focusing on Transit Time of Marine Resources to Incidents in the Canadian Artic

Abstract

In recent years, global warming in Canada and Arctic regions has received more attention due to observed increases of 1.7 °C, and 2.3 °C from 1948 to 2016 in the mean annual temperature for Canada and its northern regions, respectively. The rise in temperature, especially noticeable in the Arctic, has caused changes to the amount of sea ice, resulting in a surge of activities and denser maritime shipping traffic. This in turn raises concerns about heightened risks of incidents and accidents. Addressing this concern, our study focuses on the Maximum Expected Time of Rescue (METR) in the Canadian Arctic. The Polar Code, the International Maritime Organization’s main regulatory guidelines for shipping safety in the Arctic, mandates ships to carry at least 5 days' worth of sustenance and survival equipment for all People on Board (POB). The objective of this work is to determine whether this 5-day timeframe is sufficient for rescue services to respond to ships in distress in the Canadian Arctic. This research specifically aims to examine the responding vessels’ Transit Times (TT), denoted as Maximum Expected Time of Rescue –Vessel Transit (METR-VT). To achieve this, a simulation model is developed to estimate the duration from departure of maritime rescue assets until they arrive at the incident locations under varying conditions, including ice coverage, different times of the year, bathymetry, and the different ice-going capabilities of responding vessels. This study utilizes two main marine resources: government vessels and nearby non-governmental vessels (referred to as vessels of opportunity). By employing a simulation model for ship routing in ice, along with data from the Automatic Identification System to obtain insights into the spatio-temporal patterns of available responding vessels the METR-VT is determined for the Canadian Arctic marine environment. This study estimates suitable METR-VT values considering different groups of responding vessels, across various zones in the Canadian Arctic, calculated for each two-week period throughout the year. A software tool is developed that would enable users to calculate the highest METR-VT considering multiple zones and across different time windows. Additionally, the results indicate that the 5-day METR in the IMO Polar Code is often inadequate at certain times of the year mostly in western zones of the Canadian Arctic with dense ice coverage.