dc.contributor.author | Yang, Yang | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2014-04-30T18:15:40Z | |
dc.date.available | 2014-04-30T18:15:40Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2014-04-30 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10222/50409 | |
dc.description.abstract | By using Michigan and SPF surveys, this thesis compares the group-level inflation-forecast performance as well as information transmission between two main market participation groups, consumers and professional forecasters. Group-level performance are in terms of forecasting different U.S. inflation indexes and evaluated using forecast accuracy measured by RMSE as well as predictive power tested by a linear model. In addition, consumers are decomposed into three sub-groups based on educational attainment and income distribution to explore within-group heterogeneity. The results indicate that both consumer groups and professionals show poor forecast performance for all the inflation measures, except professionals’ performance for CPI-Core. Further, gathering downward-biased inflation forecasts from professionals is a possible reason that contributes to highly educated consumers’ inflation-forecast performance for price changes of expenditure categories they care. | en_US |
dc.language.iso | en | en_US |
dc.subject | Michigan survey | en_US |
dc.subject | SPF survey | en_US |
dc.subject | heterogeneity | en_US |
dc.subject | group-level comparison | en_US |
dc.title | Inflation Expectations and Inflation Forecasting: Consumers versus Professional Forecasters | en_US |
dc.date.defence | 2014-04-16 | |
dc.contributor.department | Department of Economics | en_US |
dc.contributor.degree | Master of Arts | en_US |
dc.contributor.external-examiner | n/a | en_US |
dc.contributor.graduate-coordinator | Melvin Cross | en_US |
dc.contributor.thesis-reader | Andrea Giusto | en_US |
dc.contributor.thesis-reader | Dozie Okoye | en_US |
dc.contributor.thesis-supervisor | Talan Iscan | en_US |
dc.contributor.ethics-approval | Not Applicable | en_US |
dc.contributor.manuscripts | Not Applicable | en_US |
dc.contributor.copyright-release | Not Applicable | en_US |